Project Description

Services:


Client:

Transport for NSW

Project Value:

Confidential

The NSW Government is committed to reaching net zero CO2 emissions by 2050. The transport sector is a large contributor to emissions in NSW, of which TfNSW and bus operations are a significant component. Buses make up nearly 78% of TfNSW carbon footprint. The transition of the NSW bus fleet (over 8,300 diesel buses) to zero emissions will include the conversion of bus depots, upgrades to the power grid and procurement of renewable energy.

The ZEB Project has six key objectives that shape the outcome and scope of the project:

  1. Transition to net zero emission bus services through replacement of bus fleet and renewable energy sources in alignment with NSW Government targets.
  2. Improve liveability and contribute to successful places through reduction in bus noise and emissions across the asset life cycle, supply chain and operations.
  3. Increase mode shift to bus through improve customer experience.
  4. Improve fuel security and cost certainty through removed reliance on diesel.
  5. Increase efficiencies in the bus operations and maintenance.
  6. Increase opportunities for local investment in manufacturing, assembly, training and education.
OUR CONTRIBUTION

Providing cost peer review advice to Transport for NSW during the Strategic Business Case in 2021 by way of Cost Concurrence where we:

  • Reviewed existing estimates, strategic business case and program dependants and critical activities.
  • Refined costs and reinforced major assumptions to provide clarity to project budget.
  • Assessed deterministic contingency allowances.
  • Reviewed appropriate escalation factors and project outturn costs.
  • Benchmarked rates and values across key sectors and at key milestones to determine whether the direct and indirect costs are producing value for money on the project, scope and across procurement strategy.
  • Prepared and submitted Project Estimate Concurrence Report with several recommendations to be implemented

Due to our successful engagement during 2021, we were selected to be part of the consortium engaged to assist in producing the Final Business Case (FBC).

The FBC was developed over 2022 and considered the delivery of the Greater Sydney Tranche 1 of existing depot conversions and expansions, the construction of a full new depot and the acquisition of the electric bus fleet. Being the first significantly large bus fleet transition in Australia, we undertook specialist studies and investigations to inform the financial and economic analysis of the business case.

This financial and economic model included:

  • The preparation of a robust whole-of-life cost estimate capturing the entire scope of work which forms the Greater Sydney Tranche 1.
  • The preparation of cost estimates in a way that represented P50/P90 WOL budget including all CapEx and OpEx incremental costs.
  • Conducting the Capital Expenditure estimate, including all direct, indirect, client, escalation, and contingency costs for the project; substantiating and comparing estimates against national and international benchmarks.
  • The preparation of the Operational Expenditure, with the engagement and support of stakeholders and operators to capture all operational and maintenance costs.
  • Leading the Quantitative Cost Risk Assessment (QCRA) process, including workshopping and modelling through the use of Monte Carlo simulations.
  • Providing detailed advice regarding escalation indices and forecast for the different components of the FBC, considering the complexity of the works, local content, technology evolution and manufacturing capabilities.
  • Preparing a comprehensive 80-page Cost Report, detailing the project background, our estimating methodology, assumptions and exclusions for each cost component, modelling input and outputs, etc.

Our team of experts are excited to be working with government agencies, financiers, operators, manufacturers and local entities to fully transition fleets and supporting infrastructure into zero emissions across Australia.